Claimed: When Will Oslo's Luck Change?

[CowboyinAmerica 2,705]

 

Oslo might be on the worst run in VHL history. Can the past predict the future?

 

Oslo -- When the VHLM contracted to five teams this past offseason, it was clear that they left five of the teams with the most history. The Ottawa Lynx won last season, the Saskatoon Wild last won in Season 52, the Las Vegas Aces/Bern Royals won in Season 50, and the Yukon Rush made the last two finals while winning back-to-back in Season 38 and 39.

 

And then there’s the last team – the Oslo Storm. Historically, Oslo has won five championships and made 15 finals, more than any other franchise. But these days, those totals seem like ancient history. Oslo last reached a finals all the way back in Season 44, and the team shockingly hasn’t won one since Season 32. Bratislava, a second-year team during that Season 32 campaign, won six championships then ceased to exist in the time it has taken Oslo to win another.

 

If you asked many impartial observers, it’s not a trend that’s likely to change this season either. The Storm currently sit fourth out of five teams in the standings, with the Aces running away as the presumptive favorites. However, that doesn’t mean all is lost. And you just need to look back at that Season 32 team to figure out why.

 

A Good Goalie Goes a Long Way

 

The Season 32 Oslo Storm had a number of top prospects, including three players who would go in the first round of the next season’s VHL draft in Keiji Toriyama, Felix Zamora and Karsten Olsen. However, perhaps the unsung hero of that team was goaltender David Poulin, from the agency of a previously more active member. Previously the eighth overall pick of the Season 31 draft, he had not yet made the jump to the VHL by the time Season 32 rolled around. Soon after the season began, however, he became active once again and topped the 175 TPE threshold in short order. Although his VHL career would not amount to much, nobody could beat him at the VHLM level.

 

Sound like a familiar refrain? Oslo’s current goalie, Our Lady of Perpetual Motion (OLPM for short), was a Season 52 draftee of a previously more active member, but he has not yet made the jump to the VHL. Even so, OLPM is still increasing her TPE count as the season rolls on, going up to 123 TPE with an update just two weeks ago. With an overall at 52, OLPM ranks third among starting VHLM goaltenders, not far behind Chet Manley’s 54. I’ll trust the raw attributes more than her current .880 save percentage.

 

A Dominant Team Doesn’t Mean Everything

 

The main case against Oslo this year probably has nothing to do with the team itself, and instead everything to do with Las Vegas. After all, how can a team reasonably be expected to compete with somebody who has amassed that talent? I mean, is there any precedent to compete with a franchise that has, say, seven of the first 11 draft picks, including four of the top five picks of next year’s draft, and a mass of 175 TPE players by the time the playoffs roll around?

 

Oh yeah. Meet the Season 32 Ottawa Ice Dogs. The dominant team that season, Ottawa ran away from all other competitors during the regular season, easily earning the best record in the league and a bye in the first round of the playoffs. But in one of the shocking upsets in VHLM history, they wouldn’t even go to the finals – an upstart Brampton Blades team would beat them in the conference finals. If Oslo had played Ottawa in the finals in Season 32 then things may have been different, but a little luck goes a long way.

 

I Mean, Things Have to Turn Around Sometime, Right?

 

The longest stretch between VHLM championships for a single franchise is 23 seasons, set by the Bern Royals (now the Las Vegas Aces), who went between Season 20 and Season 43 without a title, and the Minot franchise that did not win one after Season 19 until it was contracted following Season 42. If you do some quick math, this means that if Oslo doesn’t win the championship this season, they would now be tied on that less than illustrious list.

 

For the past 11 seasons before this one, there were only 8 VHLM teams, less than the 10 that were active during the bulk of those Bern and Minot runs. This season, there’s only 5. And again, if Oslo doesn’t make the finals this season, the franchise will have not reached the finals in the past 10 seasons. Especially because of the lessened competition, there’s a decent argument that could be made that this Oslo run is the single worst franchise stretch in all of VHLM history. And in a world where Stockholm can be considered Continental Cup favorites, everyone’s fortunes have to change sometime, right? Just like the Season 32 team overcame the odds, maybe the Season 54 one can as well.

[Gudnason 607]

Maybe in S55